SCSC2003 Abstract S61648
Missile Defense as a Capacity Planning Problem
Missile Defense as a Capacity Planning Problem
Submitting Author: Mr. Joe Uzdzinski
Abstract:
The capacity planning method proposed here is new to missile defense scenario evaluation. Unifying target and interceptor description through the common units of divert, this method's scope spans from individual engagement to theater level evaluation. Framed in the language of capacity planning, the threat potential, or demand, is stochastic in that both the number of targets and their interception complexity are modeled as the drift and variance of a Brownian motion process, respectively. Capacity is an enumeration of interceptors; each one with a handover error (HOE), a fuel mass fraction and an employment lead-time that collectively describe the estimated missile defense resource's divert reserve. Aggregate threat and interceptor models are combined via the Black-Scholes equation to obtain a divert surplus/shortage description for a given missile defense scenario
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